Glossary term
Weighted Pipeline
Weighted pipeline turns the raw total of open deals into a more realistic number by multiplying each deal's value by its chance of closing. A SAR 1 million deal in the first stage is not worth 1 million in your plan.
What is weighted pipeline?
Weighted pipeline is the sum of all open deal values after each value has been multiplied by that deal's win probability, which is usually the probability attached to its current stage. A SAR 100,000 deal in a 40% stage therefore counts as SAR 40,000. The result estimates how much revenue the current pipeline should produce if the probabilities hold on average, which makes it useful for planning at team or quarter level and useless for judging a single deal: any one deal is either won in full or lost. Teams use it in forecasts and to check whether the pipeline is large enough for the target.
A worked example
The pipeline of a commercial kitchen equipment supplier (illustrative probabilities and values):
| Deal | Stage | Value (SAR) | Stage probability | Weighted (SAR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hotel in Makkah | Negotiation | 600,000 | 80% | 480,000 |
| Restaurant chain | Proposal | 250,000 | 60% | 150,000 |
| Private hospital | Contact Made | 400,000 | 40% | 160,000 |
| Central kitchen | Qualified | 900,000 | 20% | 180,000 |
| Total | 2,150,000 | 970,000 |
The raw pipeline is SAR 2,150,000; the weighted pipeline is only 970,000. The central kitchen, the biggest deal on the list, contributes just 180,000 because it sits in the first stage. Against a quarterly target of 1,000,000, the weighted figure falls short even though the raw total looks like twice the target.
In Naffes CRM
Naffes CRM admins give every stage a win probability when they set up the pipeline, and the weighted value then appears in several places:
- The KPI panel beside the deals list shows the open pipeline value and, in the next row, its weighted value by stage probability.
- The Forecast view of the deals list groups deals by close month, quarter, pipeline or owner and shows each group's total, weighted value, won/open/lost split and largest deals, which keeps different periods apart.
- The home dashboard lists open pipeline with its weighted value among its four KPIs.
- On Pro and Enterprise, you can ask the Naffes Smart assistant for the open pipeline funnel, and it returns each stage with deal count, value and weighted value.
Probabilities in Naffes belong to stages and are typed in by admins; there is no machine-learned win probability per deal. Each workspace works in one currency, and amounts are never converted between currencies.
Further reading: sales forecast, deal stage and forecasting and quotas.
When weighted pipeline misleads
- Uncalibrated probabilities. If stage percentages were guessed and never checked against actual wins, the result is a guess multiplied by numbers.
- One giant deal. A single large deal in a late stage can inflate the figure, and losing it wipes out the gain overnight.
- Stalled deals. A deal stuck in negotiation for months still counts at the highest probability.
- Mixed periods. Weighted value for the whole pipeline is not this quarter's forecast; some deals are not due to close for months.
Questions
Questions 2
How is weighted pipeline different from a sales forecast?
Weighted pipeline is arithmetic applied to the whole pipeline using stage probabilities. A forecast is a commitment to a number for a specific period, combining that arithmetic with what the manager knows about individual deals. Many teams start from the weighted figure and adjust it.
How often should stage probabilities be reviewed?
At least once a quarter. Compare the share of deals that were actually won after reaching each stage with the probability written on that stage, then adjust. The fewer deals you have, the longer you need before trusting the ratio.